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DAILY ANALYSIS

Below we list the archive of previous Daily Analysis prepared by our experts. 

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AUD up on metal prices, GBP down on low inflation; Fed speakers up
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

At last, some real volatility in the market! AUD continued to gain as the metals world went bananas. Aluminum and nickel jumped as the market worried about the impact of US sanctions against United Co. Rusal,...

CHF approaches previous floor; Bank of Canada rate decision
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

CHF was the outlier over the last 24 hours. The two “safe haven” currencies seem to be responding assymetricaly to risk:  the “risk off” environment pushed JPY up more than CHF, but the “risk on” seems to be pushing CHF down more than JPY.

USD down on Trump tweet; GBP employment, Fed speakers
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Another day of relatively lacklustre movements in the market. A risk-on feeling in the stock market proved negative for USD but not so positive for EUR, either. One reason USD may be lower today was a ridiculous tweet from Trump, who said:...

NZD falls, GBP rises; COT report analysis; US retail sales; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

It’s hard to say where risk is opening this morning. Stocks were generally lower in the US on Friday, but not dramatically so. Today they’re mixed in Europe. Oil is slightly lower, which suggests the markets aren’t particuilarly concerned about the Syria...

Risk on sentiment returns, GBP gains vs EUR; quiet day ahead
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

US stocks closed higher and most of Asia is up today as sentiment goes “risk on” again. The FX market response is typical – AUD is higher and both JPY and CHF are lower as a result. The driving force behind the move was Trump’s astonishing ...

Currencies in narrow range as oil in focus;
China trade
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A volatile day but with little change overall in FX rates. Stocks this morning are a sea of red. US markets closed lower and Asia is mostly lower as well as a hawkish reading of the minutes from the 21 March...

USD falls as sentiment improves, CAD rises on higher oil; US CPI, FOMC minutes
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

China President Xi’s conciliatory words – or at least, the absence of any confrontational words – helpted to calm markets yesterday as fears of a trade war receded. The S&P 500 closed up 1.7% and the safe-haven CHF and JPY weakened.

Risk sentiment improves as Xi takes the high road; US PPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The market can be summed up in three words:  trade, trade and trade. That’s basically what’s moving everything. US stocks had a roller-coaster day yesterday – up 1.9% at one point but closing up only 0.3% as prices fell...

Bank of Canada business outlook, Xi’s policy speech at Boao Forum; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Bo’ao Forum for Asia began yesterday on the Chinese island of Hainan. It runs until Wednesday. This annual meeting, known as the “Asian Davos,” brings leaders from government, business and academia in Asia ...

Risk on again = USD up, JPY down; payroll day + Powell speech
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Risk-on, risk-off. Repeat. That’s the way the market is trading nowadays. S&P 500 up 0.7% as the market believes Larry Kudlow’s comments that the tariffs on Chinese goods may just be a negotiating tactic. Result: USD up, JPY down.

Risk-on again as US signals willingness to negotiate; service-sector PMIs
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Really, the market is a little boring now. Everything comes down to the risk on/risk off trade, and that’s being driven by the stock market, and the stock market is being driven by two factors: 1) Trump’s fight with Amazon, and 2) Trump’s fight with China.

Stock market fall = JPY rise; UK manufacturing PMI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Boy, was I wrong! I thought that the trade issue would die down this week, stock markets would continue to recover, and the main feature of the week would be a declining yen as risk sentiment improved. Wrong, wrong and wrong again!

Currencies hardly changed in quiet market; RBA meeting; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

With both the US and Europe out on Friday, and Europe out this morning, there was little change in currency rates. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such small changes from one day to the next.

NZD up, GBP down in end-quarter positioning; Japan tankan
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The roller-coaster stock market went up again yesterday, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.4% and the NASDAQ up 1.6%. Yet USD was barely changed overall. 

USD gains, JPY falls on reduced North Asia tensions; German CPI, US PCE deflator
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

As usual nowadays, it’s either a risk-on day or a risk-off day. Yesterday was a risk-on day, and the usual suspects moved in the usual way, namely AUD rallied ...

JPY up, AUD down as risk returns; US trade, pending home sales
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A wild day in the stock markets! The S&P 500 was up 0.6% at one point, but then plunged to be down 2.3%. It closed off 1.7%. Turmoil in the tech sector from the Facebook fiasco has been compounded by chaos in US trade policy...

Safe-haven currencies plunge as risk appetite returns; Consumer Board US confidence
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Stocks came roaring back in the US yesterday and risk was forgotten. Investors were encouraged by comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who pledged to maintain trade negotiations and ease access to American businesses...

Better risk environment hits CHF, JPY; Fed speakers coming up; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Markets have been focusing on the growing threat of a trade war between the US and China. But most of the reaction seems to have been on Friday. Stocks were down across Asia this morning,...

JPY up, AUD down in risk-off environment; Fed speakers, Canada CPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Stock markets are a sea of red as Trump slapped tariffs on at least $50bn of imports from China. The news has sparked fears of a trade war as China readies retaliation measures...

USD weakens after “dot plot” shows no change for 2018; Bank of England rate decision, Japan CPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The long-awaited Fed meeting came and went with no change in the median dot for this year and only a 19 bps increase -- less than an entire 25 bps rate hike -- in the forecast for end-2019...

CAD jumps on US NAFTA concession; FOMC, RBNZ meetings
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A big change from the recent trend:  the beleagured CAD was the best-performing currency on newspaper reports that the US has dropoped a demand in the NAFTA...

GBP up on Brexit agreement, JPY down on official concerns; UK CPI, ZEW survey
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

GBP was the biggest gainer on the day after Britain and the EU agreed on a 21-month transition period after Brexit. The move makes it much less likely that the UK ...

AUD falls on weaker iron ore; G20 finance ministers & central bankers’ meeting; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Collapse of AUD! News that iron ore inventories in China are continuing to climb sent the price of the ore sharply lower Monday, pushing AUD down with it.

USD rallies on higher 2-year yields, trade concerns; US housing starts, industrial production
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD rose further as the market absorbed comments from the new head of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, favoring a “sound, stable dollar.” ...

EUR falls on Draghi comments; SNB meeting, Empire & Philly Fed indices
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A sea of red in global stock markets crushed risk sentiment and sent JPY higher even though Tokyo stocks were down only slightly. Lower US bond yields in the wake of a disappointing US retail sales figure...

USD down on US political turmoil;
US retail sales, PPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

US politics has been in the headlines after Trump fired US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who famously had to issue a denial that he had called Trump a “moron” ...

CAD falls in otherwise quiet market; US CPI, UK Spring Statement
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A relatively quiet day in the markets, with most currencies trading little changed. CAD was the big loser on the day, much to my surprise. ...

USD down on “Goldilocks” NFP; US Treasury auction, Japan PPI; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD fell against all the other G10 currencies after Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures showed a much larger-than-expected rise in new jobs but slower-than-expected rise in average earnings...

Trump/Kim meeting, tariff climbdown boosts USD; US NFP day ahead
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A notable day in the markets that shows how politics can overwhelm economics. USD gained across the board as Trump agreed to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

USD stabilizes as White House moots trade sanction carve-outs; ECB, BoJ meetings
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Trade remains the driving force for the FX market. Speaking of the much-maligned trade sanctions that Trump is hell-bent on imposing, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said ...

Cohn resignation sends USD lower; Bank of Canada rate decision, ADP report
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A wild day in US politics! The good news was that North Korea indicated it would consider giving up its nuclear weapons in return for a guarantee of its security.

AUD rises on more optimistic RBA; Fed speakers, Australia GDP
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A risk recovery as hopes rise that the mercurial Trump will ultimately back off on his threat to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum. White House economic advisor Gary Cohn Thursday will bring ...

Italy election results in hung parliament; service-sector PMIs, RBA meeting; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

On Sunday, Italy’s election appears to have resulted in a hung parliament, with no group getting enough seats in the Lower House to form a government. The final results aren’t known yet, but A)...

USD falls on US trade tariffs; UK PM May speech, Italy elections
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Trump said the US would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports for “a long period of time.” It should come as no surprise that Canada and China quickly threatened retaliation. The FX market reaction should also come as no surprise.

GBP falls after EU unveils unacceptable Brexit treaty; final PMIs, US PCE, Tokyo CPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The big story yesterday was GBP, which fell sharply after the EU published its draft version of the Brexit treaty. There are two key points in the document: One, that the UK will have to follow EU law during the transition period...

Powell comments push USD higher; EU-wide CPI, US GDP revision
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD is higher and equity markets are red only today (except Thailand) after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony was perceived as relatively hawkish. The key point was when he was asked what it would take for the Fed

USD in narrow range ahead of Powell testimony; Germany CPI, US trade data
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Both USD and EUR gained as the market was more one of individual currency stories rather than overall USD movement. US rates were largely unchanged as investors awaited today’s testimony by Fed Chair Powell. 

USD falls along with Treasury yields; US new home sales, central bank speakers; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was volatile and trendless on Friday but resumed its decline as trading got under way this morning. Treasury yields were down across the curve, with the 10 years off 7 bps...

JPY up, NZD down in end-week market; lots of central bank talk
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was slightly lower as US Treasury yields came down a bit. Personally, I think this is a mistake; yields are coming down because the huge auctions this week, which will continue next week, are being well absorbed.

Hawkish FOMC sends USD higher;
Ifo survey, Japan CPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The big event overnight was the release of the FOMC Minutes, which showed that Fed official “anticipated that the rate of economic growth in 2018 would exceed their estimates of its sustainable longer-run growth.”

USD higher as confidence returns; preliminary PMIs, FOMC minutes
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Confidence seems finally to be coming back to USD (for now, at least). US Treasury yields were slightly lower in the longer end, although the short end – where we saw supply yesterday – edged higher.

USD rises as Treasury yields rise ahead of auctions; ZEW survey
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A relatively quiet day yesterday, as expected, with much of Asia and the US out on holiday.USD finally seems to be getting some support from higher US bond yields.

USD rebounds in pre-holiday position-squaring; empty schedule today; Week Ahead outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD gained notably on Friday as investors closed out short USD positions ahead of the long US weekend (today is President’s Day in the US). Note from Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT)...

USD falls (surprise surprise!), JPY strengthens; UK retail sales, US housing starts
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The spectre of stagflation is haunting the markets. US industrial production was revised down sharply for December and actually fell in January, contrary to expectations, as did capacity untilization.

USD plunges despite higher-than-expected CPI; US PPI, Empire & Philly Fed indices
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Dollar plunge! It’s really amazing – the US CPI was much higher than expected (both headline and core stayed at the same yoy rate of change instead of slowing as expected)...

JPY gains on technical factors;
US CPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The big thing over the last 24 hours was the appreciation of the yen. The graph below shows how closely USD/JPY tracked the movement of the Tokyo stock market.

USD retreats as stock markets stabilize; UK CPI, Japan GDP
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

After several days of losses, stock markets recovered somewhat Monday and the fear level subsided. The S&P 500 opened higher and stayed in positive territory all day long, ending up 1.7%.

AUD, NZD up on carry recovery, GBP down on Brexit fears; no major indicators out today
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The dollar was little changed after Friday’s recovery in stocks, which (mostly) carried over into Asian trading this morning. AUD was the best-performing currency since Friday morning.

Stock market plunge sparks carry trade unwind; UK production & trade, Canada employment
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Yet another dramatic down day in stock markets leading to a further risk-off environment. The safe-haven JPY and CHF performed best while AUD continued...

USD recovers on Senate budget agreement; Bank of England MPC meeting
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD rallied as US stocks stabilized (S&P 500 closed down 0.50%, which is pretty good in this environment) and the VIX index fell, indicating some reduction in the panic mode in world markets.

CHF down, AUD up as market switches back to “risk on”; RBNZ OCR
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Is it over? The New York market managed to recover yesterday, with the S&P 500 ending the day up 1.74%. But carry-through has been weak in Asia this morning...

Stock markets continue to plunge; German factory orders, US trade
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Massive carnage in global stock markets. The “safe haven” flows into JPY and CHF that I mentioned yesterday certainly occurred today, with JPY in particular being the best-performing major currency...

Dollar rallies as US rates rise; service-sector PMIs, RBA cash rate; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Amazing day Friday. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations handily and, even more important, so too did average wages. Nonetheless – or because?

USD falls despite rise in Treasury yields; NFP day
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD fell against most currencies but was stable to higher against the Asia-Pacific majors as the trading day began.. US Treasury yields rose across the curve owing in part to good economic data;...

USD up on better US news; PMIs, ISM manufacturing
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD gained on positive US news:  the ADP report beat expectations nicely (234k vs 185k expected), employment costs rose sharply in Q4...

FOMC meeting, ADP report
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The main focus today will be the much-awaited first FOMC meeting of the year. It’s also the last for Chair Janet Yellen...

USD rises on higher bond yields; Germany CPI, Carney testimony
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Well! An up day for the dollar! May I remind you that yesterday morning I said, “Nonetheless, I think USD could rebound today on higher US Treasury yields.”

USD weakens further on mixed US data; EU27 Brexit talks; Weekly Outlook
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD is starting the week lower against most G10 currencies than it was Friday morning this time. The exception is EUR, where it’s more or less unchanged, and GBP.

USD recovers (somewhat) on Trump comments; UK, US GDP
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

“Alice laughed. 'There's no use trying,' she said. 'One can't believe impossible things.' I daresay you haven't had much practice,' said the Queen....

Dollar plunges on Mnuchin comments; ECB meeting, Japan CPI
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Those of you with long memories may remember Robert Rubin, who was US Treasury Secretary under President Clinton. He became Treasury Secretary in January 1994, when the dollar was collapsing.

USD lower on US political risk; preliminary PMIs, UK employment
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Down again! USD is lower against all the other G10 currencies this morning on a variety of worrisome political developments from Washington.

US government starts up again, USD falls; Davos forum, Goodfriend confirmation
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

That was quick! I had expected the US government shutdown to last a lot longer than this. But don’t worry; the government is only funded through 8 February. This could happen all over again then.

USD rises despite US govt shutdown; Senate vote, BoJ meeting
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday! (or on Friday, to be strictly accurate). Yes, the US government shut down on Friday. Fortunately Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD)...

USD falls on government shut-down fears; US government funding, SPD conference
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD down across the board…I should just save that phrase so I can copy/paste it into my comment every day. The market is obviously worried about the possibility of a US government shut-down...

EUR down as specs pare positions, NZD recovers; housing starts, Philly Fed
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

EUR continued to weaken on comments from ECB members fretting about the strength of the currency and pointing out to anyone who will listen that inflation isn’t yet going in the right direction.

EUR/USD in chaotic move; CHF up, NZD down; Bank of Canada rate decision
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A wild market overnight! There was a sudden spike in EUR/USD in early Asian trading from 1.2271 to 1.2323 on no news whatsover, then a plunge down to 1.2242 as I write.

JPY falls on Japan jawboning; UK CPI, Australia home loans
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Dollar weakness and euro strength were the main themes overnight, for no particular new reason – this is just the trend to stay on. The main feature of the market then was the fall in JPY, ...

USD collapse as monetary policy divergence trade reverses; Japan PPI; Week Ahead
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Dollar collapse as the “monetary policy divergence” trade goes into reverse! This is exceptional, given the fact that Friday’s core CPI beat expectations.

EUR/USD up on hawkish ECB, lower US PPI; US CPI, retail sales
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

EUR rose and USD fell on a combination of a hawkish reading of the ECB minutes plus an unexpected decline in US producer prices and rise in jobless claims.

USD weakens on questions over China Treasury purchases; US PPI, Japan current account, China trade
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The risk mood deteriorated considerably yesterday on an unconfirmed report that China might slow its purchases of Treasuries or stop entirely in retaliation to the threat of a “trade war” with the US.

UK production and trade, three Fed speakers
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The day starts with the UK industrial and manufacturing production. Output is expected to rise at a faster pace than in the previous month.

German industrial production and trade, JOLTS job openings
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The European day starts off with German industrial production. Yesterday’s factory orders data surprised with a 0.4% mom decline, although that nonetheless translated...

Weak NFP pushes USD lower; Fed speakers, Japan cash earnings
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

During the European day, Germany announces its factory orders for November. These are expected to be unchanged from the previous month.

EUR lower on Catalonia election; US PCE deflator, Canada GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Catalonia crisis finally affected the euro after the three separatist parties won the Catalan regional parliamentary election. Not only did these three win, but the party of Carles Puigdemont,

NZD up on good GDP figure; Philly Fed index, Canada CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Oh dear…I had thought the odds were just stacked against NZD. Based on the market forecasts for a weak GDP, I thought people would give up on it as the year comes to an end and the currency would fall further.

USD lower as tax bill (almost) passes; existing home sales, BoJ meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was generally lower on a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” response to the passing of the US bill (although it hasn’t passed entirely yet – see below).

CHF up, NZD down; Ifo, US tax vote
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

My apologies -- I’m afraid I can find no reason why the CHF gained so much overnight nor why NZD fell during the European and US days yesterday.

USD up on tax bill hopes; NAHB index, RBA minutes; Weekly Outlook
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The dollar is starting the week stronger against most of the other major currencies. Reports that several of the...

EUR lower on dovish ECB; US Empire State index
2018
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The new forecasts for 2020 that the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed yesterday showed that the Bank doesn’t expect to hit its 2% inflation target even then (only 1.7%).

Fed hikes but keeps inflation forecast unchanged; BoE, ECB, tankan
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates as expected, and also slightly increased their estimates of future interest rates as they upped their forecasts for the economy.

Dollar lower on Democrat victory; UK employment, US CPI, FOMC meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Democratic candidate for Senate won in Alabama. I will refrain from editorial comment except to observe that...

UK CPI, ZEW, US PPI; US election results
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

After yesterday’s light schedule, we have a more substantial roster of events today. The day starts off with the British inflation data. The inflation rate is forecast to have remained unchanged from the previous month, both on the headline figure and core inflation.

NZD up on RBNZ appointment; JOLTS, Japan PPI; Weekly Outlook
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD is opening little changed overall. Friday’s better-than-expected nonfarm payroll figure had little net effect on the currency...

GBP jumps on Brexit optimism; NFP, UK IP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The key FX market development over the last 24 hours was obviously the surge in GBP amidst reports that Britain and Ireland are nearing an agreement on the difficult issue of what to do about their border

CAD falls on “cautious” BoC; Draghi speech, Japan GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD gained following the ADP employment report. The report came in exactly as forecast at 190k. There seems to have been some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” profit-taking immediately after the figure, but a few minutes later ...

AUD plunges on GDP miss; ADP, Bank of Canada, EC College of Commissioners
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Well, that didn’t last long! The boost to AUD from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s more optimistic view on inflation faded completely. On the contrary, AUD was the worst performing...

RBA less concerned about inflation; US & Canada trade, AU GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

UD was the big winner (to my surprise) after retail sales beat estimates and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) turned slightly more optimistic on inflation.

Dollar rallies on US tax bill; May/Juncker talks, RBA meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The commodity currencies led the pack Monday morning, but that was more a reflection of Friday’s action, not this morning’s. CAD was the big gainer on Friday after employment...

USD lower as tax bill hits bump; UK PMI, Canada GDP & employment, ISM manufacturing
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was lower and EUR higher despite a lower-than-expected EU-wide CPI and a rise in US Treasury yields after the US tax reform bill ran into trouble.

GBP soars on reports of Irish border agreement; OPEC meeting, US personal income, German politicians meet
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

GBP soared after the Times reported that negotiators are close to a breakthrough on the difficult problem of the Irish border. If the two sides agree, ...

USD rises on hopes for tax bill; Germany CPI, US GDP, Yellen testimony
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD gained after the Senate tax bill made it out of committee and headed to the floor of the Senate for a vote on Thursday. Two Republican members of the committee who had their doubts...

NZD gains on AUD/NZD sales; Irish no-confidence vote, Trump meeting, Powell testimony
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The dollar was modestly higher overall as the market anticipates the Senate tax bill passing this week, possibly as early as Thursday. This seems odd to me.

USD recovering in Asian trading; US new home sales, Dallas Fed; Weekly Outlook
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The dollar is starting out the week broadly lower against most major currencies. However, most of the move took place on Friday. In fact the dollar has been recovering somewhat this morning in Asia.

EUR up on PMIs, GBP down on budget & Brexit; May & Tusker meeting, US PMIs
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

EUR was the biggest gainer, probably due to the stunning beats on yesterday’s preliminary purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the major EU economies.

USD plunges on dovish FOMC; PMIs, ECB minutes
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Dollar collapse! The dollar plunged after the FOMC minutes showed more Committee members concerned about the low level of inflation. As I pointed out yesterday, the minutes of the September meeting...

USD weakens on flat yield curve; UK budget, FOMC minutes
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

It’s another down day for the dollar. The extremely flat US yield curve – flattest it’s been since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis – has been keeping the dollar from rallying.

EUR recovers as Merkel hangs in; US existing home sales, Yellen talk
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The risk-off tone didn’t last long! Global equity markets were up almost across the board – even Germany, +0.50% despite Chancellor Merkel’s troubles. ...

EUR plunges after German coalition talks collapse; EU ministers’ meeting, US leading index; Weekly Outlook
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

After last week ended with a furor about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into the Trump campaign’s connection with Russian meddling in the US election,...

JPY rallies, AUD falls on risk off; US housing starts, Canada CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Whatever USD did during the European and US days yesterday, it fell suddenly around 01:30 GMT this morning during Asian trading after the Wall Street Journal reported...

GBP recovers as May survives; UK retail sales, Canada ADP report, US IP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

GBP gained despite the first fall in the number of people employed in almost a year as wage growth (slightly) exceeded forecasts, although it remains well below the rate of inflation.

EUR soars, AUD plunges; UK employment data, US CPI & retail sales
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A soaring EUR and collapsing AUD were the big features of the day overnight. EUR started rallying after German Q3 GDP beat expectations (+0.8% qoq vs +0.6% expected, +0.6% previous).

NZD plunges on AUD/NZD buying; central bankers’ gabfest, UK CPI, ZEW
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The big story over the last 24 hours was clearly the collapse in NZD. There doesn’t seem to be any particular domestic trigger for the move, just a general sell-off in the commodity currencies...

USD up as Treasury yields rise, AUD & GBP down on politics; speakers, China indicators; Outlook for the week
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

FX rates were little changed in general from Friday’s opening levels. USD was slightly higher but no major movement from last Friday morning. The inexplicable surge in US Treasury yields Frida...

Senate tax changes hit USD; UK production, trade, Brexit talks
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was hit as the Senate outlined its proposals for overhauling the US tax code with significant differences from the House version. In particularly, the Senate wants...

NZD surges after RBNZ; Brexit talks, ECB gabfest, RBA statement
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market Recap. NZD was the big gainer after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revised up its inflation forecast, which suggests that interest rates may have to rise earlier than expected.

USD now weakening on fears of tax cut delay; Japan indicators, RBNZ
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD moved higher over most of the day yesterday but was weakening in Asian trading on reports from Washington that Senate Republicans were considering delaying corporate tax cuts. 

RBA holds rates and growth forecast steady; JOLTS report, Trump in South Korea
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market Recap. GBP was the big winner on reports that the UK has privately agreed to EU demands to pay the €60bn “divorce bill” to settle outstanding liabilities, among other issues.

USD strengthens on ISM index despite disappointing payrolls; RBA meeting likely to be non-event
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Buy EUR/USD:  The usual pattern is for USD to weaken in the week after the NFP figures. So far, that hasn’t happened this time around, ...

GBP plunges as BoE warns of Brexit risks; NFP coming up
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

GBP collapsed yesterday after the Bank of England came out with a more dovish than expected outlook. While they raised rates as expected, the statement following the meeting

Odds on Powell increase, FOMC confirms rate hike likely; Bank of England rate decision
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was lower this morning on reports that Trump will announce later today that Jerome Powell will be the next head of the Fed. Why this well-telegraphed move should still be affecting the markets...

FOMC meeting likely to confirm strong economy and likely hike in December; ADP report
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Let’s just skip to the chase:  this evening’s meeting of the rate-setting US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Nobody expects them to make any changes in policy rates.

USD weakens on Powell, tax reform delay; BoJ stands pat; EU CPI, Canada GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: Buy AUD, NZD  These two currencies have been weak recently, but I think with US interest rates headed lower and Japanese rates on hold, they may come in for some ...

Fed Chair appointment, special investigation weaken USD; German CPI, BoJ meeting; Weekly Outlook
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: Sell EUR:  I think the Spanish problems are starting to affect sentiment towards EUR, plus last week’s dovish ECB. A weak inflation figure today...

Draghi drags out bond purchases, Yellen said to be out of the race; US GDP expected to slow
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas. Sell USD: I think the dollar is in a great spot now and looks poised for further medium-term gains. Nonetheless, it’s had an unusually good week...

GBP jumps as UK capitulates, CAD plunges as BoC turns cautious; ECB meeting looms
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: Take a view on ECB: Will they cut their purchases more or less? Will they extend them shorter or longer? Will they set a hard or soft ending?

AUD plunges after disappointing CPI; UK GDP, US durable goods, Bank of Canada rate decision
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas. Buy USD  It seems to me to be on a roll. Although I think tax reform may encounter problems later, the Treasury market should offer support today.

JPY up on technical, NZD down on political concerns; PMIs, AU CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas. Buy USD:  Congress is finally making progress on the budget. That should be encouraging for the US economy, push US yields higher, and support USD.

JPY down on Abe win, GBP up on (misplaced) Brexit optimism; boring day ahead with only Chicago Fed index
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market Recap. Japan PM Abe and his so-called “Liberal Democratic Party” (LDP) won a smashing victory in the Lower House election Sunday. The ruling coalition (LDP + Komeito)...

NZD plunges on politics; EU summit press conference, Canada CPI, Japan election
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: Buy USD  Signs that the US Congress can indeed get something done may encourage further USD buying today. Also, the spectre of further uncovered tax cuts ...

Catalan crisis hasn’t hurt EUR so far, but may; UK retail sales, EU Summit
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trades: Sell EUR/USD: I admit this trade didn’t work yesterday, but I think the denoument of the Catalan crisis today may well have an impact on EUR, even if only temporary.

GBP plunges as Carney offers nothing new; UK earnings, US Beige Book, China GDP etc.
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: Sell EUR/USD: I still think that the mood in the market is to buy USD, especially as hopes for a budget agreement continue and the “Fed Chair Beauty Contest” is under way.

Comment for 17 Oct: USD rises as Taylor impresses; UK CPI, ZEW; Xi speech
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Ideas for the day:Sell EUR/USD  The US political scene is looking a bit better (temporarily at least) and the Fed chair selection process is going smoothly, a contrast to the turmoil in EU politics

Comment for 16 Oct: Market awaits Catalan (first) deadline; Empire State index, NZ CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market Recap. EUR was the biggest loser since last Friday, although the movement wasn’t that great. The drop could be just a reaction to USD strength after Fed Chair Janet Yellen Sunday...

Comment for 13 October:Pound gyrates on Brexit negotiations, EUR lower on ECB tapering; US CPI coming up
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: Short EUR/USD:  The pair has had a good run this week, but with talk of a “lower for longer” tapering policy ...

Comment for 12 October: FOMC minutes raise risk for tomorrow’s CPI; NAFTA, Iran speech loom; US PPI, China trade
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s trading ideas: 1) EUR/USD uptrend: The news about European politics continues to improve, news about US politics...

Comment for 11 Oct: Catalonia hedges & EUR rises; NAFTA negotiations, FOMC minutes, Praet speech
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The drama in Catalonia played out with relatively little drama. Catalan President Carles Puigdemont declared independence, as he had threatened, but immediately suspended the declaration...

Comment for 10 Oct: Catalan parliament meets; UK industrial output & trade, Japan machinery orders
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

GBP was the surprise leader overnight, after the UK statistics office revised up its estimate for labor costs in 2Q. That suggests inflationary pressures may be more than people had thought.

Comment for 9 Oct: NFP review; market overview; upcoming indicators
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Friday’s nonfarm payroll report was confusing. The number of jobs actually contracted for the first time since Sep. 2010, ending what I believe was the longest string of unbroken job creation.

Comment for 6 Oct: NFP, Several Fed speakers
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD had an up day as US yields moved modestly higher and risk-on sentiment improved. The Spanish situation calmed down somewhat after Spain's Constitutional Court ordered Catalonia’s Parliament to suspend its planned session on independence. US factory orders beat estimates, while durable goods orders were revised higher.

Comment for 5 October: ECB minutes, US factory orders, Japan labor cash earnings
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD ended the day higher against most other G10 currencies after an exceptionally strong non-manufacturing ISM index (59.8 vs 55.5 expected). However, much almost half of the rise was apparently due to weather conditions...

Comment for 4 Oct:Dollar weaker as Powell takes the lead; ADP employment report, ISM non-manufacturing index
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD was the weakest major currency, as usual, as US bond yields fell modestly and Fed fund rate expectations retreated.

Comment for 3 Oct: Almost nothing on the schedule
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Not much to write about today! No US or Canadian statistics coming out. About the only number of note today is the UK construction PMI. Following yesterday’s manufacturing PMI, which fell slightly more than expected...

Comment for 2 Oct: manufacturing PMIs, ISM index; RBA decision; Outlook for the week
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today we get the final manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) from those countries that announce preliminary versions (France, Germany, EU and US), as well as the US version..

Comment for 29 Sep: EU CPI; US personal spending & PCE deflator; Canada GDP; Catalonia referendum (maybe)
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD slipped as the market re-evaluated the likely impact of the Trump tax breaks, or perhaps more accurately, the likelihood of them getting enacted as is.

Comment for 28 Sep: German inflation, US advance trade & inventories, Japan CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

It’s all about interest rates these days. As the graph below shows, the change in a currency’s value vs USD over the last two weeks has been 61% determined by the movement of ...

Comment for 25 Sep: Weekly Outlook; Ifo, Draghi speech, NZ trade
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

This week is full of speeches by ECB and Fed officials too numerous to mention. The key speeches will be ECB President Draghi’s introductory statement at today’s Committee on Economic and ...

Comment for 22 Sep: EU & US PMIs, May’s Brexit speech, German election
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

The European day starts off with the manufacturing and service-sector purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for France, Germany and the EU as a whole.

Comment for 21 Sep: Philly Fed, Draghi speech
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

Following yesterday’s excitement with the FOMC and the overnight focus on the Bank of Japan, the rest of the day is likely to be spent analysing the impact of those two meetings. The schedule during the day isn’t likely to move rates that much.

Comment for 20 Sep: FOMC, BoJ meetings; UK retail sales
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

The focus today will no doubt be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Following that, overnight there will be a Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Board meeting, but that is expected to result in only technical changes to policy at best.

Comment for 19 Sep: ZEW, US housing starts, Japan trade
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

The European day starts off with the ZEW survey. This is a survey of financial analysts and investors, not people actually making or selling things, so it’s more...

Comment for 15 Sep 2017: US retail sales, industrial production
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

Little is on during the European day. ECB’s Daniele Nouy, head of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, speaks. Activity is likely to pick up when the US day begins. Right at the opening there are two important indicators: ...

Daily comment for 14 Sep: SNB, BoE, US CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

Today’s the big day! Two central bank meetings:  the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England, plus the closely watched US CPI data.

Daily comment for 13 Sep: UK employment data, US PPI, Australia employment
2017
By Marshall Gittler (Fundamental), Varkut Geza (Technical)
In Category
ANALYSIS

The European day starts up with UK employment data. This is the last bit of data as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes on whether to hike rates. It doesn’t have to be stellar to encourage them; ...

Daily comment for 12 Sep: USD moves higher, JPY & CHF lower on “risk on” sentiment; UK inflation, JOLTS job openings
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

With the UN voting unanimously on tighter sanctions on North Korea, and Hurricane Irma downgraded, it was a day of relief and “risk on” for the markets...

Daily comment for 11 Sep: Dollar rebounds; Canadian Housing starts; Outlook for the Week
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A rare up-day for the dollar as risk sentiment returned somewhat. Hurricane Irma was downgraded to Category 2, rather than the feared Category 5 disaster that had been anticipated, and North Korea refrained from launching another missile over the weekend ahead of Monday’s vote at the UN on proposed tighter sanctions.

Comment for 8 Sep 2017: Draghi says “wait till next month;” UK manufacturing, trade data
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The ECB Thursday launched the tapering process, sending the euro sharply higher. ECB President Draghi said that the Bank had a “very, very preliminary discussion” Thursday on when and how to wind down its €60bn-a-month bond-buying program, and would make a decision “this autumn.”

Comment for 7 Sep 2017: Fischer resignation opens FOMC up further; ECB meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Boy was I wrong! The Bank of Canada not only raised rates again, but also left the door open for more rate hikes in the future by removing the language from previous statements about the current level of rates being “appropriate,” or words to that effect. The result was that CAD soared.

Comment for 6 Sep 2017: Market in risk-off mood; Canada rate decision awaited
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A continuation of the risk-off mood Tuesday send JPY up further and USD down further. 10-year Treasury yields plunged 11 bps on the day on risk aversion, a proposed cut in German debt sales, falling US stock prices, and comments from Fed officials.

Comment for 5 Sep 2017: Korea tensions dominate, RBA shows no change in stance; UK services PMI, Brainard & Kaplan speeches, Japan earnings
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A typical risk-off day, following the increase in tensions on the Korean peninsula. Trump could hardly have chosen a worse time to talk about terminating the free trade agreement with South Korea. CHF and JPY rose, as did gold. Commodity currencies were lower.

Daily Comment for 4 Sep 2017: Korea tensions hit dollar; RBA meeting in focus
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A fairly quiet Friday with USD almost unchanged during the day despite the disappointing nonfarm payrolls and ISM index, two supposedly critical indicators. While the overall NFP figure was well below estimates, manufacturing payrolls gained and consumer sentiment rose.

Comment for 1 Sep 2017: PMI, ISM & NFP day!
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A big day today – the global purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) plus nonfarm payrolls are coming out! The day starts with the European PMIs. The revised Germany & EU PMIs rarely make that much of a splash. The focus will therefore be on the UK manufacturing PMI. It’s expected to be down only slightly.

Comment for Thursday, 31 August: EU CPI, US personal income, spending & PCE deflators; Canada GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The first big item on the schedule for Europe is the EU-wide consumer price index (CPI). Following yesterday’s higher-than-expected rise in German CPI, the figure could beat estimates. If it comes in as expected, with core CPI remaining at 1.2% yoy, that could give the ECB pause about announcing any change in policy at next week’s meeting.

Daily comment for Wednesday, 30 August: Risk sentiment recovers; Germany CPI, US ADP report, Japan IP, China PMI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A surprising switch from “risk-off” to a massive “risk-on” trade. The risk-sensitive AUD let the way up, while JPY and CHF were the biggest losers. Precious metals also fell, while stocks generally gained (and are mostly higher in Asian trading this morning).

Daily comment for 29 August: Risk off as North Korea launches another missile; Canada PPI, US consumer confidence on the schedule
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

North Korea launched a missile over Japan and launched a classic risk-off move as well. Precious metals and the safe-haven JPY and CHF went up, while the risk-sensitive commodity currencies – particularly AUD – went down. Almost all stock markets in Asia are lower this morning, while bond yields are mostly lower as well.

Daily Comment for Monday, 28 August 2017: Draghi & Yellen give green light for higher EUR/USD; US inventories, trade data
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Another day, another leg higher in EUR/USD. ECB President Draghi’s formal presentation to the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday included no hints about a possible change in monetary policy at their upcoming meeting next week, nor did he express any concerns about the strength of the euro.

Week Ahead for the week beginning Aug.28th
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The tone for the week will probably be set by Friday’s speeches at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which are not available at the time of writing. In particular, EUR’s course is likely to be determined by ECB President Draghi’s comments ahead of the ECB meeting on 7 September.

AM comment for 25 August: Yellen and Draghi speak at Jackson Hole; Ifo index, US durable goods
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

CAD was the best-performing currency over the last 24 hours and JPY the worst as risk appetite returned. Higher copper prices and better-than-expected earnings from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) helped CAD to gain despite lower oil prices.

AM & PM comment for 24 August: EUR keeps going up, USD & GBP keep going down: US existing home sales, Japan CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Yesterday’s purchasing managers indices (PMIs) turned out to be exactly the opposite of what economists expected: the European manufacturing PMIs rose strongly instead of falling, while the US manufacturing PMI fell instead of rising. Result:  general EUR strength.

Daily comment for 21 August: Risk-on as Bannon exits; Chicago Fed national activity index
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Oil jumped suddenly during NY trading on reports of a shutdown at the second-largest refinery in the US. Market participants reasoned that the shutdown would force other refineries into the market to make up the difference in output, thereby pushing up prices...

AM & PM comment for 23 August
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

As often happens recently, events were more important for the FX market than the indicators. Trump spoke at a rally and made two comments that shook the markets.

Daily Comment for 22 August: EUR up ahead of Jackson Hole, GBP down ahead of Brexit; ZEW survey, Constancio speech, Canada retail sales
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

As I predicted, it was a pretty boring day – most currencies moved in a fairly narrow range. Apparently many investors in the US took the day off to watch the eclipse. With no major indicators out during the day, it seems that investors were taking positions in anticipation of Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium.

Week Ahead for the week beginning 21 August: Jackson Hole Symposium, preliminary PMIs, durable goods, Japan inflation
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The week ahead is big on “soft data” and not so big on “hard data.” The soft data includes a number of sentiment surveys, such as the preliminary PMIs and the Ifo survey.

AM comment for 18 August: “Risk off” on US political turmoil, Barcelona killings; Canada CPI, U of M survey coming up
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

JPY and CHF were the best performing currencies over the last 24 hours, while almost all stock markets in Asia were lower (Jakarta being the main exception).

Disastrous day for USD from both monetary & fiscal policy; UK retail sales, ECB meeting minutes, US industrial production
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

It was a disastrous day for the dollar from both a monetary and fiscal point of view. On the monetary side, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting reinforced the idea of a split on the Committee about the prospects for inflation...

FOMC discussion on inflation to set dollar’s course; UK earnings more important than employment
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The big event of the day comes at the end of the European day – really, it’s more of an overnight event, although some traders in Europe may stay at their desks for it. It’s the release of the minutes from the FOMC’s 25-26 July meeting...

AM & PM comment for 15 August: UK CPI, US Retail Sales
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The UK CPI is forecast to accelerate a bit, on both a headline level and core. That would be a reversal of the previous month’s slowing trend. It could raise speculation about an early rate hike yet again and support the pound...

FOMC minutes; Japan trade may support JPY; Australia employment at plateau = AUD
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

I discussed the FOMC minutes in my morning comment today. Basically, the market will be focused mostly on what they have to say about inflation: is the slowdown temporary or something structural? And should they raise interest rates anyway or wait for more confirmation?

Week ahead for week beginning 14 August: North Korea to dominate
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The main thing dominating the market nowadays is the North Korea situation and the increase in political tensions there. I think that’s going to be the continuing theme for a while, at least until it either settles down or blows up.

AM comment for 11 August: US CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A typical “risk off” market again today – JPY and CHF higher, commodity currencies lower. Silver and gold once again at the top, oil down sharply. Stock markets down across the world (only Argentina and Jamaica were up yesterday), continuing this morning – every Asian market is down.

AM & PM comment for 10 August: UK industrial production & trade, US PPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

I said in my overview for the week that this was historically the week with the least volatility, and yesterday certainly turned out that way, at least as far as currencies were concerned. All the major currency pairs that I follow were within ±0.3% of their previous day’s value this morning. Only commodities were big movers.

AM & PM comment for 9 August: US unit labor costs, RBNZ meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

It was a “risk off” day as President Trump warned North Korea that threats would be met with “fire and fury” and North Korea said in reply that it is “seriously considering a strategy to strike Guam with mid-to-long range missiles.”

PM comment for 8 Aug: China inflation, Australia home loans
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Overnight Christopher Kent, the RBA’s Assistant Governor for financial markets, will give the Bloomberg Address in Sydney. There’s no indication what the speech is about. I would assume Australia’s financial markets.

AM comment for 8 August: NFIB small business optimism, JOLTS job openings
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

German industrial production was expected to be weak but was even weaker than economists forecast. Nonetheless the market ignored the figure and EUR managed to gain on the day. 
USD was mixed. It gained against the three commodity currencies but fell against most European currencies...

Week Ahead for the week beginning 7 August
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

We are entering into the summer doldrums. Looking at data for the last nine years, the coming week is on average the least volatile week of the year! So if you’re a trader looking to take off a week, this coming one might be a good choice. 

PM comment for 7 August: Japan current account, China trade data
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Japan announces its current account for June, as well as the trade balance on a balance-of-payments (BoP) basis (different from the monthly trade basis in that the BoP data includes cost, insurance and freight, whereas the monthly trade data covers only the cost of the goods until they get to the ship).

AM comment for 7 August: German IP, Bullard speech
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Friday’s US jobs report not only beat estimates (+209k vs +180k estimated) but also the average hourly earnings was higher than expected as well, remaining at the previous month’s 2.5% yoy rather than slipping to +2.4% yoy as expected (mostly due to rounding up -- the month-on-month change was as expected at +0.3%).

AM comment for 4 August: US nonfarm payrolls
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Bank of England decision and Inflation Report went pretty much as I expected, so I was surprised by the reaction – apparently not everyone thought the way I did and were caught off guard by the dovish tone.

PM comment for 3 Aug: Japan labor cash earnings, RBA statement on monetary policy, Australia retail sales
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Overnight we get Japan’s labor cash earnings figures. These are arguably more important than the CPI data, because they are a leading indicator of the CPI, at least in the Bank of Japan’s thinking.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

CHF once again led the way down, which is puzzling as there doesn’t seem to be any trigger for the move. From the data on Swiss sight deposits, it appears that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) isn’t intervening to any great extent in the market, nor has there been any big change in the Swiss economy.

Australia trade-Japan cabinet reshuffle
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

San Francisco Fed President John Williams, another non-voter, speaks after Cleveland Fed President Mester. Williams rates at about the same place on the “hawk-o-meter” as Mester does.

UK construction PMI, ADP employment report
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

With the end-of-month flows finished, USD had a moderately up day despite lower US bond yields. The acceleration in the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator for June -- +1.5% yoy vs +1.4% in May (+1.4% expected) – also helped.

PM comment for 31 July: RBA meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its last meeting on 4 July, less than a month ago. The statement following the meeting was little changed from the previous meeting.

AM comment for 31 July: EU CPI, US pending home sales
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

EUR/CHF continues to be a market focus. After so long out of the spotlight, interest is coming back to the CHF. There’s no fundamental reason for it – nothing much has changed with regards to Switzerland’s economy.

AM comment for 28 July: Germany CPI, US Q2 GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Some mean reversion after the FOMC meeting. US yields fell and the dollar weakened sharply after the FOMC meeting, yet there wasn’t really that much new from the statement.

PM comment for 27 July: Japan inflation, Australia PPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Overnight we get the usual end-of-month deluge of data from Japan. The most important bit within this is the CPI data. I wish I could say something exciting about it, but basically there hasn’t been any inflation in Japan for the last 20 years or so...

AM comment for Tuesday, 25 July: Ifo indices, US consumer confidence, Haldane speech
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Currencies moved in a relatively narrow range yesterday. EUR fell after  the EU manufacturing and composite PMIs fell by much more than expected. Nonetheless, the PMIs are still consistent with strong growth in the Eurozone.  

 

AM comment for 26 July: UK GDP, FOMC meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

There was a huge shift to “risk on” over the last 24 hours, with the safe-haven assets – JPY, CHF and gold – all performing badly.  The catalyst seems to have been the much stronger-than-expected Ifo survey, which countered Monday’s weak German PMI.

AM comment for 27 July: CBI trends, Durable goods, US trade balance
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The key feature overnight was dollar weakness. There were no big surprises in the FOMC statement, yet there was one subtle change: they noted that inflation was running “below” rather than “somewhat below” their inflation target.

AM comment for 12 July: Yellen testimony, Bank of Canada rate decision
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Central bank speakers made most of the running yesterday. EUR hit a high for the year after ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure indicated that the ECB wasn’t concerned about how its monetary policy had affected the euro.

AM comment for 13 July
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Wow, was I wrong! Not only did the Bank of Canada (BoC) raise rates, but the effect on CAD was stunning – USD/CAD plunged 2.2 cents before finally rising a bit. My deepest apologies. It’s said that “he who makes his living with a crystal ball has to learn to eat glass.”

AM comment for 14 July: US CPI, retail sales, industrial production
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

AUD was the best performing major currency over the last 24 hours as iron ore prices rose nearly 3% and investors put on carry trades, particularly vs JPY (which weakened accordingly). Australian bond yields are the second-highest among the major countries.

Outlook for Week Beginning 17 July
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The focus remains squarely on central banks and the growth-vs-inflation conundrum that they face. Bank of Canada Gov. Poloz summed up this dilemma when he discussed the reasoning behind the Bank’s decision to raise interest rates.

AM comment for 18 July: UK CPI, German ZEW index
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A lower-than-expected US Empire State manufacturing index and an article in the Wall Street Journal about weak credit demand led to a weaker USD. The fact that the Senate won’t be able to vote on the health care bill also hurt the currency, presumably because that makes it unlikely that the other parts of the Trump administration’s plans will bet passed too, such as tax reform and infrastructure investment.

PM comment for 19 July: Australia employment, BoJ Board meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The Asian day starts with the Japanese trade figures. This data can be market affecting, but today ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting later in the day, I’m not sure investors will be that concerned with it. In any event it’s expected to show the trade surplus right on trend, which should be neutral for the yen.

AM comment for 19 July: Canada manufacturing sales, US housing starts
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

GBP was the outstanding currency yesterday after the CPI data missed expectations. The headline figure is now back in line with the Bank of England’s forecasts. This eliminates the main reason why the more hawkish members had been advocating for an early rise in interest rates and makes it less likely that the inflation forecasts will be revised up next month.

AM comment for 20 July: ECB meeting, UK retail sales, Philly Fed index
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market recap. Currencies were confined in a fairly narrow range over the last 24 hours.

AM comment for 21 July: UK PSBR, Canada CPI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market recap. EUR soared as ECB President Draghi showed “increasing confidence” that inflation would get back to the ECB’s 2% target level sooner or later.

AM comment for 24 July: OPEC
non-OPEC meeting, Kushner testimony, US
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

USD fell broadly on Friday despite any significant market-affecting news – deeply worrisome for the dollar. It was particularly worrisome that JPY led the way, given that the yen is the one currency where “monetary policy divergence” still holds sway.

Week Ahead for week beginning 24 July: FOMC meeting, Trump Jr. testimony, US Q2 GDP
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

There are a lot of major events occurring this week. Following last week’s Bank of Japan and European Central Bank meetings...
 

AM comment for 11 July: Canada housing starts, JOLTS job openings
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market recap. It was a very quiet day Monday, with most currencies staying in a relatively narrow ±0.2% range. Turnover in EUR/USD on the major electronic markets was said to be the lowest for the year.

PM comment for 10 July: Australia NAB survey, home loans
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Not much on the agenda overnight. US consumer credit is watched as an indicator of the health of the all-important US consumer, but it isn’t particularly market-affecting, except perhaps for certain consumer stocks or stock-market sectors.

 

AM comment for 10 July: German trade balance, US LMCI
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Friday’s employment data was stunning – much better than expected – and sent the currency up sharply. No, not the USD, I’m talking about the CAD. The unemployment rate was expected to be unchanged but fell, while the net change in employment was 4.5x as much as expected.

AM comment for 7 July: UK IP & trade,
US nonfarm payrolls, G20 meeting
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The sell-off in global bond markets continued. This is one of the driving forces in the FX market right now. The fact that German yields are rising so much faster than US yields is one of the main reasons why EUR is gaining on USD.

Morning comment for 6 July: ECB minutes, ADP report,
ISM non-manufacturing
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

A relatively quiet day with little movement in currency markets. USD gained as the FOMC minutes showed Committee members observing that financial conditions have eased despite higher interest rates.

PM comment for 5 July-FOMC meeting minutes-
Australia trade balance
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The FOMC meeting minutes are going to set the tone for the late US session and overnight. As I said this morning, I expect that the two major questions will be A) why did they decide to announce their plans to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet, and B) what are their views on the likely course of inflation as the actual numbers keep declining? Watch for answers to those two questions.

AM comment for 5 July-
UK service sector PMI-US factory orders-FOMC minutes
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Most major currencies traded in a narrow range yesterday as the US Independence Day holiday took a lot of traders out of the market. The big exception was CAD, which rose sharply after the German newspaper Handelsblatt ran an interview with Bank of Canada Gov.

AM comment for 4 July
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

The day was notable for several interconnected move:  the rise of the dollar, the fall of the yen, and the plunge in precious metals. All were due (more or less) to a much better-than-expected result from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, which jumped to the highest level since August 2014. The employment sub-index also rose sharply.

30 June Morning Comment
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Yet another down day for USD. The notable point was that bond yields rose around the world as markets adjust to what everyone now assumes is the beginning of the end of the era of ultra-low interest rates.

28 June Morning Comment
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

ECB President Draghi stunned the markets yesterday by declaring victory in the fight against deflation and suggesting that policy would have to be normalized gradually. He said that “deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones” ...

29 June Morning Comment
2017
By Marshall Gittler
In Category
ANALYSIS

Market recap. The theme in the market remains the normalization of monetary policy. That was the conclusion drawn from ECB President Draghi’s speech Tuesday and comments yesterday by Bank of Canada Gov.

AM comment for 3 July 2017
In Category
ANALYSIS

The dollar is starting the week on a strong note as US interest rates continue their rise from Friday. 10-year yields for example were around 2.33%, up from 2.30% Friday afternoon and 2.27% at Thursday’s close.

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